Every open bet on bitcoin, counted in coins, divided by the coins sitting on exchanges. A rising line means bets grow faster than the coins that back them — and both halves of the fraction are measured here, not bought.
0.09696 bets per coin on exchanges · core venues, the same 5 all the way: Binance USD-M, Bybit, OKX, Bitfinex, Kraken on Oct-22 2026, the last day in this build, measured and published by askthetape.com.
A perpetual bet is a promise; a coin on an exchange is the thing that can actually be sold. This page divides the first by the second. On Oct-22 2026 there were 169,248 BTC of open bets on the 5 core venues against 1,745,608 BTC sitting on the exchanges our map covers: 0.09696 bets per coin. The wider line, every venue we reach, was 0.22395 the same day. Over the 1,027 days of the core line the middle reading is 0.08377; the highest was 0.11606 on May-05 2026 and the lowest 0.05869 on Jan-10 2024, and in the last year it ran between 0.07574 (Nov-02 2025) and 0.11606 (May-05 2026). When the line rises it means one of two things and the second view tells you which: either the bets grew, or the coins left. That is the whole point of keeping both legs on the page. 🩸 This is not a forecast. A crowded book is not a schedule, and nothing here says when anything unwinds. 🩸 The amber line adds up whatever venues printed that day — on Oct-22 2026 that was 18 of them, against 19 on Oct-01 2026 — so a step in it is venues arriving, not leverage jumping. The blue line keeps the same 5 venues all the way, and that is the line to read for direction.
| leg | two legs, both ours. (1) Open interest in COINS: every perpetual book we can see on BTC, ONE side, ONE principal instrument per venue — the same fold, the same rows and the same venue set as «How much is bet, on every venue» (our own five-minute capture spliced onto the exchanges' own archives, 18 venues). (2) The coins the exchanges hold: the anchored reserve printed on «Coins in and out of exchanges» — our own address map v2.1b, pinned to a chain snapshot of 2026-09-12 at 1,760,960 BTC (clean exchanges 1,612,609 + the Kraken reserve-only hub 148,351) and rolled forward day by day with our own netflow. Nothing on this page is bought: the top of the fraction and the bottom of it are both measured here. |
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| cadence | daily, both legs. A day is drawn only when BOTH halves printed it, so the last day on the chart is the last CLOSED day of the slower leg — the reserve tape, which lands one day behind. The running UTC day never enters the ratio. |
| since | 2022-01-01 for the wide line (the first day of our netflow tape, which is what the reserve level is rolled on) and 2023-12-31 for the core line — the first day on which all 5 core venues printed together. The core is picked by the data, not by hand: continuous history since on or before 2024-01-01, no gap longer than seven days. |
| coverage | Open bets: 18 venues in the wide line, 5 of them in the core — Binance USD-M, Bybit, OKX, Bitfinex, Kraken. The core is not a list we chose: it is every venue with a continuous history (first day on or before 2024-01-01, no gap longer than seven days), and a day enters it only when ALL of those venues printed. Coins on exchanges: our address map holds 69 entities, and it is thin in named places: Coinbase's cold wallets are not in it, and Bitstamp's and Gemini's barely are. The hub is 148,351 BTC of Kraken addresses held out of the netflow tape and added back into the level. That is why this ratio is OURS: it is bets we can count over coins we can prove. |
| 🩸 what this is not | Not a forecast and not a signal: a high ratio says there are more open bets per coin on hand, not that a liquidation cascade is due. 🩸 The wide line carries COMPOSITION: it adds up whatever venues printed that day, and on Oct-22 2026 that was 18 venues against 19 on Oct-01 2026 — a step in that line is venues arriving, not the market moving, which is why the default line is the fixed core and why rank and record on the wide line are read inside the current venue set. 🩸 The reserve leg is a level rolled forward from one measured snapshot: the further the chart runs past 2026-09-12, the more of it is our own netflow and the less of it is a measured balance, and it is re-anchored by hand on the 1st of each month. 🩸 A day the v2.1 tape under-reads is a HOLE here, not a point: the reserve line holds its previous level on such a day, and holding a level is a carry, not a measurement, so the ratio skips it (0 skipped on this build). 🩸 Coins on exchanges are a stock and open interest is a stock, but they are measured by different machines — the chain at 00:00Z and the last snapshot of the venue's UTC day — so a single day's reading is not a balance-sheet fact. |
| policy | no backfill · read it here · export: whole history |
| this build | data to Oct-22 2026 |
| policy | no backfill · read it here · export: whole history |
The chart itself is drawn in the browser: turn JavaScript on to hover a day, pick a window and draw your line. The numbers above come from the last build, Oct-23 2026 21:24Z.
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